[Excerpts]
The coronavirus pandemic could soon force American physicians to face a tragic challenge — rationing medical care as the number of ill patients overwhelms the supplies, space and staff available in hospitals.
Today, the United States has fewer than 800,000 hospital beds, about 68,000 adult intensive care unit beds of any kind, and, even with the strategic reserve, fewer than 100,000 ventilators. As the coronavirus spreads, this will not be enough.
If even 5 percent of the 325 million people living in America get Covid-19, the current data suggests that 20 percent of them — 3.2 million people — will require hospitalization and 6 percent — 960,000 people — will require beds in intensive care units for many days.
Covid-19 patients will simply overwhelm our health care system.
This worry about shortages of medical staff and equipment is not theoretical.
China had so many coronavirus patients that it had to build new hospitals and choose between treating Covid-19 patients and those with other illnesses.
Italy appears to be facing shortages of ventilators and intensive care unit beds. Daegu, South Korea, which has suffered about 75 percent of that country’s cases, faced a hospital bed shortage, with some patients dying at home while awaiting admission.
In the United States, the number of appropriate face masks and the amount of other protective equipment falls far short of estimates of what we will need based upon modeling.
Hospitals, doctors and the American public must prepare, strategically and emotionally, for the real possibility that rationing will be necessary.
Agonizing choices may be required to determine which patients get lifesaving treatments and which patients do not.
How can health care officials ethically decide who gets scarce medical resources during this pandemic? … We offer these suggestions.
The priority should be health care workers; police, firefighters and other emergency workers; and those who keep water, electricity and other necessary systems functioning, because they can save the lives of others.
Source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share