$5-a-Gallon Gas by 2012, Energy Shortages by Decade's End

[Drew]

I have been teaching this very likely scenario for over three years, but have grown tired of listening to people tell me that it is never going to happen - that there is plenty of oil and it will never ever run out.  So who am I - do I have a Ph.D. in geophysics like Dr. M. King Hubbert?  How can I add credence to this topic?  People like to label people like me as conspiracy nuts.  I tell people that we could very easily experience gas shortages like we did during the gulf oil embargo in the 70s - but people will respond that it was so long ago and couldn't possibly happen again.  We are such a more happy, friendly, loving world today - there will never be issues that would restrict oil to our blessed country.

Well, I am always happy to read remarks from people who do not fall under the umbrella of a crazy nut-case lunatic.  So how about the former President of of Shell Oil, a U.S. based subsidiary of multinational Royal Dutch Shell, one of the largest oil corporations in the world.  I think this guy may kind of know a smidgen bit more about oil than most folk.  He certainly would not be easily classified as a fruit-cake weirdo.  So what does he have to say - or even more important - predict:

"The former president of Shell oil is predicting that the United States will face 1970s-style energy shortages and rationing by the end of the decade, accusing the federal government of turning its back on the country's domestic oil supply.

The dire prediction comes as energy analysts toss out a string of frightening predictions about the rising price of oil in the short term. Oil has topped $90 a barrel, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. earlier this month predicted oil could hit $120 a barrel by the end of 2012. At the same time, the national average gasoline price is about $3 a gallon for the holiday season

But former Shell executive John Hofmeister offered a more aggressive estimate, saying Americans could be paying $5 a gallon in two years. And he predicted that sometime between 2018 and 2020, supply and demand will become so out of balance that gas stations in several regions of the country will simply start to run out.

"I think it's going to be a cumulative problem that won't happen suddenly," Hofmeister, who now heads Citizens for Affordable Energy, told FoxNews.com. He predicted the problem would start with "stockouts" at select gas stations during the summer and during bad weather and then spread. He said those states farthest from refineries would get hit the worst and that in order to maintain some consistency, local and state governments might resort to the kind of rationing they employed in the early '70s -- when drivers with even-numbered license plates would buy gas on even days, and vice-versa. "

He is hoping that America would open up more land to drilling, but that may not stem the oil shortage because even if oil companies were allowed to drill, it would take years before wells were developed to full production.  And with the explosion in the gulf, don't expect an easy fight to open up pristine nature in Alaska, or off the coast of California to drilling any time soon.

Most people are not aware of this critically important fact.  The main reason Nazi's lost WW II is because they ran out of oil and couldn't continue running their war machine.

[Richard Myers]

The Republicans would like $5/gal, but the Democrats want $10/gal.  3/4 would be taxes.

When people start freezing to death, can't afford to drive to work, and the cost of food production and transportation drive the food prices past reach, then maybe there will be some changes made? Others will join with me in praying for warmer weather  around the world.

[Mimi]

We need to purchase sturdy bicycles now or become accustomed to walking. Was considering trading in my car for a better, more efficient model, but I think not.

[Vicki]

Son has been praying for a horse - perhaps we should add a buggy, also. And buy an old fashioned plow.  

[colporteur]

I'm looking at 250 cc scooters that get 100 mpg.

[Mimi]

Very good ideas, people!

[Wally]

I'm looking at 250 cc scooters that get 100 mpg.

Do they have snow tires and stabilizers for winter driving? 

[Larry Lyons]

I'm looking at 250 cc scooters that get 100 mpg.

Do they have snow tires and stabilizers for winter driving? 

Wally, you can probably find some affordable property in my neighborhood but below the snow line. 

[Kelsy]

Perhaps the Lord has a strategy to preserve the oil, coal etc. so there will be enough left when the earth is consumed in fire...

[Drew]

First off I was thinking after I posted this topic that I should clarify that I am not predicting that something like this or worse IS going to happen.  But I am pointing out that there is a high likelihood that we are going to see our over dependence on cheap oil come and bite us hard.  I also don't want to be a fear monger - that is why I thought it was important to relate a story from a top oil executive rather than someone from Greenpeace.

The Republicans would like $5/gal, but the Democrats want $10/gal.  3/4 would be taxes.

When people start freezing to death, can't afford to drive to work, and the cost of food production and transportation drive the food prices past reach, then maybe there will be some changes made? Others will join with me in praying for warmer weather  around the world.

Taxes are a whole other story.  Taxes have an element of control in that they can be passed, augments and rescinded.  But it is quite another thing to have a global commodity price for oil go up and have no control over the price that must be paid to get it.  A great example of this is 2008 when the price of a barrel of light sweet crude when over $140 in June.  This caused the price of a gallon of unleaded at the pumps to go up over $4.

A house close to where I am living in the Mideast, that is occupied by two people, just put over 400 gallons of heating oil into a tank at a cost of nearly $1,500 - and that will last hopefully for the rest of the winter.  But how are people going to afford things when the cost doubles, or triples - or worse..?  How about we all make the move to Hawaii, Fiji, Jamaica, St. Vincent - or island of your choice...

We need to purchase sturdy bicycles now or become accustomed to walking. Was considering trading in my car for a better, more efficient model, but I think not.

You know that the American mindset of living in the moment without concern about the future (kick the can down the road syndrome) - has really messed up this country.  A great example is the mistaken concept that there will always be cheap abundant oil to fuel our massive tank like SUVs.  This erroneous thinking led us in the 1950s & 60s to start building huge suburban housing which led people to wind up having to commute to work 30, 45, 60 or more miles one way.  This works fine if you have cheap oil, but it becomes unsustainable very quickly when you can no longer afford to drive the commute on a daily bases.  European cities are a bit different.  They were developed mostly in the era of horse and buggy and thus everything is closer together and less spread out.  

I am not in favor of piling everyone into big cities, but I fear that is what may eventually happen.  I like the country and being able to look up in the sky at night and see all the stars, and breath fresh air.

When I lived in Indiana we had Amish riding around in horse and buggy.  I say - what is wrong with that...  They will be much better able to deal with life after oil than the rest of us.  

[Drew]

Perhaps the Lord has a strategy to preserve the oil, coal etc. so there will be enough left when the earth is consumed in fire...

LOL ~!!           

[Wally]

Perhaps the Lord has a strategy to preserve the oil, coal etc. so there will be enough left when the earth is consumed in fire...

No question about that.  Ellen White says as much (not sure of the reference).  If there are shortages they will be caused by the political situation (as they were in 1973), not from a lack of raw material.

[Richard Myers]

That is right, Wally.

The mismanagement of resources coupled with the greed to control prices will bring hardship upon many. It is aimed at God's people. But, God will provide for His own.  Mother Earth is a Satanic force that is working in concert with greed to restrict energy sources. By not understanding this, it is true that we are headed for disaster. But, how many are willing to see this, much less do something to point it out.  Living in cities is not an option. We are to live in the country no matter what the cost. We had better be learning to do without because that is where we are going. And, to be frugal means that we can support the work entrusted to us. Those who make poor choices in conflict with counsel will suffer more than necessary.

Earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, pestilence, famine, war, terrorism, is all coming. Before Jesus comes we shall experience hardship. Are we ready?  Mother earth and greed are not going away. We cannot read the future. It may be that oil will go down to $50 a barrel. And, when you don't have but $500 a month, that is not good news. The number of empty homes in America is a sign that something is very wrong. We cannot know what tomorrow will bring. Inflation or depression?  God knows and if we have given our hearts fully to Him, then whatever comes will work for our good. It is a promise.

[colporteur]

I'm looking at 250 cc scooters that get 100 mpg.

Do they have snow tires and stabilizers for winter driving?  

No, then you revert to snow shoes.  

[Wally]

This is beginning to sound more and more likely.  Gas jumped 20 cents a gallon today along my route to work.  I filled up this evening for $3.49/gallon.  Should have done it this morning. 

If the situation in the Middle East continues to be so volatile, it will just keep going up, especially if the madman, Qaddafi blows up the pipelines. 

I've wondered for some time what kind of changes would need to take place to make it possible to preach the gospel in some of these closed countries.  Maybe this is setting up for that to happen.

[Mimi]

That is what I am thinking, Walter.